Is Pakistan Drifting Towards Civil War?

Bombings, shootings, and kidnappings are becoming increasingly commonplace in Pakistan, a fact that is best highlighted by yet another Taliban bombing in Peshawar yesterday that has so far left over 100 people dead. As stability and security in Pakistan continue to deteriorate, some have come to question the integrity of the Pakistani state as a whole, and whether or not this is the beginning of a gradual disintegration of the country.

Max Fischer from The Atlantic has postulated that the increased frequency of militant attacks across Pakistan may indicate that this is the beginning of a civil war. Rising extremism and fighting seems to be enveloping the country, with the goal of Taliban militants being to topple the Pakistani government and gain a hold of the country's nuclear stockpile.

I, for one, tend to disagree with the notion that Pakistan is facing the threat of civil war. First, Taliban militants are not necessarily indigenous to Pakistan; a huge number are of Afghan origin that shifted into Pakistan following the collapse of the Afghan Taliban regime, supplanting (through murder and intimidation) local tribal elders. Additionally, Taliban militants don't have the broad support that they would need to wage an effective military campaign against the government. Their support rests almost exclusively among the Pashtun community, who comprise no more than 15% of the population. While people of other ethnic groups, notably Punjabis, may have Taliban sympathies, it is highly unlikely that they would support a full-blown Talibanization of the country.

The Pakistani Taliban has far more in common with separatist movements or terror groups than with civil war factions that we've seen in the past. Their retreat from the Swat Valley after the Pakistan Army's offensive is indicative of the fact that the Pakistani military, and in effect the central government, can and will maintain effective control of the country, at least into the foreseeable future.